Prof. Carl Steinitz

May 2005

Description of the Study

This proposal describes a research project designed to study alternative scenarios for the conservation and urban development for the region surrounding the city of Loreto in Baja California Sur, Mexico. The study will be a research collaboration among the Graduate School of Design at Harvard University (HGSD), the Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur (UABCS) the University of Arizona (UA)'s Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, the Centro de Investigacion Biologico Noroeste (CIBNOR), San Diego State University's (SDSU) Institute for Regional Studies of the Californias, the University of California, San Diego (UCSD)'s Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO) Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation and the San Diego Natural History Museum. The project leader will be Carl Steinitz, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Planning at Harvard University, Graduate School of Design.

Located approximately 150 miles North of La Paz on a large bay of the Gulf of California, the town of Loreto was the original capital of the Californias. Already a significant tourism destination, Loreto and surrounding areas are expected to experience dramatic growth over the next ten to twenty years. With year round temperatures averaging about 80 degrees, the natural environment is the main tourist attraction of the area. Typical recreational activities include sport fishing, sailing, kayaking, diving, horseback riding, and mountain biking. Whale-watching is extremely popular and the Loreto Bay National Marine Park harbors the greatest diversity of marine mammals in Mexico. Several large, mountainous offshore islands have remained undeveloped, providing both scenic excursions for tourists and important sanctuary for sensitive species.

The future of the area will result from the regional-scale interaction of complex ecological, economic, cultural and political processes. The principal objectives of this study are to understand and model these interactions and to assist municipal, regional and national institutions and leaders in deciding the future landscape planning policy for the region.

We propose to coordinate a strategic planning study for the Greater Loreto region and to direct applied research which contributes to the study. We will develop a set of alternative futures for the region, and consider their economic, visual and ecological consequences. The results will constitute a synthesis of the best available knowledge of key land use, development and conservation policy options, and a set of predictions of their likely impacts. This work will be done in close collaboration with a group of local stakeholders, with the explicit goal of building their capacity to conduct future work related to developing scenarios and preparing appropriate plans for the region. However, since events on the ground are moving rapidly, this study is designed to provide an appropriate basis for planning and management decisions which must be made in the relatively short term.

A number of factors contribute to a favorable context and timing for such a study in Loreto. The recent election of a new mayor presents an opportunity for us to have a positive influence on the policies of the new administration. Choices made during this administration are likely to have a profound impact on the extent and type of development that will occur in the Loreto region over the next few decades. Final decisions on the drafts submitted in the fall of 2004 for two key planning instruments - the master plan for the Loreto urban area and the regional ecological planning framework - have not yet been made, leaving these planning documents to be addressed by the incoming administration. Furthermore, the amount of new development currently being discussed will dramatically change the social, economic and ecological landscape of the region. Another important element is that the Fondo Nacional de Fomento al Turismo (FONATUR), the Mexican tourism development organization, has agreed to participate in the study. This includes contributing to the research, supporting the study financially, and reconsidering their plans for the region within the auspices of this study. This represents an opportunity to influence tourism development decisions not only in Loreto but also planning for tourism throughout Mexico.

The geographical scope of the proposed study will include the immediate area around Loreto and also the larger coastal region in which we believe that considerable secondary development will occur. We propose to start work in May of 2005. We anticipate finishing in the early fall, with the final results ready by December 2005.

Historically, the region has been able to maintain its ecological and economic base without effective regulatory controls. However, this era of passive conservation is rapidly coming to an end with changes in property ownership laws, the construction of transportation infrastructure and technological advances, for example the development and falling cost of desalinization technology. The protection and enhancement of economic, ecological and cultural assets in the future will require decisive actions and policies; leaders of the region will need to carefully consider regulatory policies and infrastructure decisions and assess the implications of various alternatives. The study framework we utilize is designed to facilitate the consideration of these alternatives, including the range and interaction of factors that will shape the future of the region.

This study would expand and draw upon our recently completed research focused around the city of La Paz. That study developed a regionally-appropriate land classification system, and a set of models predicting development pressure, recreational, visual, hydrologic and ecological impacts. Most of these simulation models, and the technical infrastructure needed to develop and refine them can be adapted to this study. However, the La Paz study also highlighted a number of key uncertainties of large public policy consequence. Among these are the relationships among various kinds of development and the tourism and real estate markets, and also the consequences of such development on marine ecology. As part of this study, we propose to integrate and conduct research designed to address these knowledge gaps.

We propose to use the same general methodology of our recent study of Alternative Futures for the La Paz region. This methodology has been applied successfully in many countries around the world, including Coiba National Park in Panama. Perhaps the best example is the bi-national study in the recent book, C. Steinitz et al., Alternative Futures for Changing Landscapes: The Upper San Pedro River Basin in Arizona and Sonora, Island Press, 2003.

This framework is well-suited for carrying out a rapid yet comprehensive assessment of the major landscape planning options, incorporating the most important ecological, visual and economic impacts. This framework builds upon and uses the values and knowledge of the stakeholders, making it an excellent means for fostering dialogue and instigating change. The central task will be to forecast land use patterns based on different sets of assumptions regarding the amount and type of pressures facing the region over the next twenty years under different development and conservation priorities, projects and policies.

We will design the study to investigate trends and options in urban development, tourism, infrastructure investment, conservation priorities, and their economic and ecological consequences. Tourism, real estate and conservation efforts will drive the major changes in the region and compete for space. The demands for new land use will in turn be shaped by new transportation infrastructure and land use policy. The economic aspect of the study would focus on the employment and income impacts of different conservation and development alternatives, as well as the economic impact of the changing visual landscape. One of the key interactions on which we plan to focus is the relationship between the environmental and visual landscape and the potential for future growth in the tourism and real estate sectors.

The alternatives taken into consideration would include scenarios that represent maximum plausible development and maximum plausible conservation for the region over a period of 20 years, as well as additional scenarios that represent less extreme policies, balancing growth and conservation in different ways and locations.

As in our study of the San Pedro River in Sonora and Arizona, there are clearly contentious issues to be addressed while planning the future economic and ecological landscape for the region. Rather than recommending one course of action upon the completion of the study, this framework produces a range of alternatives and articulates the implications of each. We have found that this method for compiling and presenting information is more conducive for encouraging better policy decisions, recognizing the necessary political processes that accompany every policy decision. We would work closely with Mexican counterparts, both in the design of the study and in providing the content for our methodological framework.

It is important to recognize the major limitations of the proposed study. We will conduct this study as a comprehensive assessment of the critical challenges facing policy makers, using GIS methodologies to analyze the major issues, options, impacts and choices at a level that is informative and visual, but not at the level of a multi-year, large budget scientifically-predictive research program.

The informational basis for analysis is likely to include the results of prior scientific studies along with the best estimates and experiences of regional experts where published scientific knowledge is unavailable. One of the strengths of the approach is that it is designed to compile the best existing information and organize this information in a format that is easily accessible to policy makers and stakeholders. In this way, studies such as these can both provide a basis for better-informed decisions and to highlight the areas that require the greatest concern and perhaps immediate action. One potential outcome is the identification of areas where substantial research programs should be undertaken in the future.

There are two areas in which contributing research will be conducted. The major drivers of land use change are likely to be large planned unit developments, including resorts, and potential road alignments and upgrades. We believe that clarifying the relationships between these kinds of development and the tourism and real estate markets represents one of the most important set of practical questions in planning for future development. Relevant empirical data on these questions is currently lacking. However, we believe that this information can be developed using a combination of simulation and survey methods. Using computer modeling and photomanipulation, we will create visual simulations of potential development. We will then survey developers, tourists, and local to determine impacts on perceived tourism potential.

A second set of key uncertainties relates to the potential ecological impacts of these kinds of development. The current state of the science in this area does not explicitly address the impacts of various types and amounts of human disturbance. While it is not possible to conduct primary experimental research on these topics within this study, we would integrate what is known to date, and provide a framework for both immediate management and for future research.

Based on our prior study in La Paz, much available work appears to be focused on ecological inventory, but has not progressed to the point of a clearly articulated set of ecological priorities tied to legal mechanisms. We are aware of efforts by two local NGOs (The Nature Conservancy and Niparaja) to prioritize conservation areas using systematic ecosystem-based methods. Recognizing that this is still work in progress, we would like to both support and make use of these efforts to the largest degree possible. Depending on timing and availability, our work might well be used to extend such analyses, currently based mostly on ecological criteria, to take into account future development and recreation patterns. However, since existing management, law and public understanding tends to focus on individual species rather than ecosystems, we recommend developing a set of GIS-based wildlife habitat models (WHR). Such models depend on two components: appropriate habitat mapping and the availability of published primary research describing species habitat use. Such work is a relatively routine component of the management of terrestrial species and has been used elsewhere for marine conservation. However, this study would require working with ecologists to develop an appropriate classification of coastal habitats, including near-shore benthic communities. We envision development of a half dozen such models, depending on data availability. In our study, both terrestrial and marine ecological impacts would then be assessed based on potential habitat loss for a number of indicator species.

While scientific knowledge is an important input into solid public policy, this research strategy provides a framework in which to combine and integrate technical information with local values. The approach simultaneously addresses the technical and political sides of the decision-making process, enhancing the prospects for translating the results of the study into concrete actions. Furthermore, the study approach estimates the future impact of available policy options, rather than creating a hypothetical vision for the future without a clearly specified technical and political path for achieving the same.

The analytical tools and data developed in the study would provide the basis for future policy analysis and study. Therefore, one of the study objectives would be to make the tools and data available to appropriate local and regional organizations at the end of the project.

We propose a conference at the end of the study in the region to present, discuss and disseminate the results. This conference would serve as a first step towards encouraging future cooperation in implementing conservation and development activities throughout the region.

In addition to working closely with the municipality and FONATUR, we propose to collaborate with the same team used for the La Paz study, including researchers from the UABCS and UA. UABCS would contribute to the study by collaborating in the development of a comprehensive data set for the study area, by participating in the economic and social assessment and by collaborating on a terrestrial ecology assessment. SDSU will undertake an analysis of social interpretation of demographic changes in Loreto; UA would provide the hydrological analyses for terrestrial areas. Additionally, we will provide opportunities for the Loreto campus of UABCS that focuses on eco-tourism to participate in and contribute to the study.

We are also proposing a new collaborative relationship with CIBNOR in La Paz to develop quantitative marine ecology models and terrestrial species-habitat association models for terrestrial areas. These models will be complemented by data on coastal fisheries from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and terrestrial data of flora and fauna from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Their collective expertise in these two areas will expand the analytical scope and usefulness of this study.

HGSD will be responsible for coordinating all aspects of the study. In addition, HGSD will be responsible for the development of the scenarios and the economic and visual assessments.

We propose to begin work in May 2005 assembling the necessary data for the study and meetings with the core study team and key collaborators. We would meet with the principal stakeholders during May to define the initial scenarios for study. The summer months will be used to organize the GIS database, and to specify the impact models for the study and the spatial allocation of the scenarios. In September and October, we will calibrate and run the models. Documentation and preparation of the public presentation would occur in late October and November. The final presentation would be made in either December 2005, or January 2006.

A final bilingual summary report will be completed in February 2006, with any technical transfer to follow in March 2006.